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If the Deagel calculations turn out to be even close to accurate, the most unsafe places to live over the next three years will be the United States, Canada and the U.K., followed by Germany, Australia and the rest of the E.U. nations. This population forecast was so controversial, showing population reductions of 68.5 percent in the United States (from 2017 levels) and between 25 and 70 percent for almost every Western European country, that the study mysteriously disappeared from Deagel’s website in March 2021.
But not all areas of the world will continue to decline. Some will actually have larger populations by 2025, according to the Deagel forecast. The safest places to be living would appear to be Central and South America, China and Africa. Interestingly, Russia came in as neutral, not gaining or losing population.
Is this Deagel forecast map a prediction of who will win a future World War III?
Or will a Global Pandemic or maybe a Vaccine be the reason for this!
Deagel organization predicts
massive global depopulation
of 50 to 80% by 2025
Historically, a change in the economic paradigm
Deagel organization predicts massive global depopulation of 50 to 80% by 2025.
Deagel.com
Deagel, a true intelligence organization for the US government, predicts a massive 50-80% global depopulation by 2025. Few people are familiar with this website and even more say the organization does not legitimately exist. Despite the overwhelming removal of its significance, WikiLeaks documents revealed that it was legitimately used as a reference material in a Stratfor report on the technological capabilities of the North People's Republic of Korea.
According to its own website, Deagel provides news and information on international military aviation and advanced technologies. The website contains articles from 2003, but little is known about the real owners. Many online researchers have mistakenly confused this site with "deagle.com" which is owned by Edwin A. Deagle, Jr., Assistant to the Secretary of Defense and Assistant Secretary of Defense.
Deagel's reports, particularly the aforementioned research on North Korea, were also provided to the president during presidential briefings. Deagel thus provides information which is then used by global intelligence communities and governments. Here is a partial list of known Deagel partners and customers, according to their own websites: National Security Agency, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the Russian Defense Procurement Agency, Stratfor, the World Bank and the United Nations.
The advantage of these forecasts is that the Deagel site has no conflict of interest in these forecasts. They are literally mercenaries. The site analyzes which budgets will be allocated to which markets to purchase military aircraft. That’s all that really matters to them. These forecasts are based on the reconciliation of various publicly available reports from institutions such as the CIA, the IMF and the UN. They also include a small amount of data from a variety of "dark sources" such as web gurus. But all of these sources are on the internet. The list is constantly evolving. Forecasts of population growth or decline, military spending, and purchasing power parity across countries around the world have fluctuated somewhat, but since 2015 one prediction has not changed: China will be the largest economy on the planet in 2025.
Massive global depopulation
of 50 to 80% according to Deagel.
This highly regarded intelligence organization has bleak prospects for the United States in the years to come, including an 81% decline in its population, from 327 million in 2017 to 100 million in 2025. In fact, it predicted a similar cataclysmic fate for the UK, Australia, Germany, Japan, Denmark, and other US allies. For example, according to Deagel, the population of France will increase from 67 million inhabitants in 2017 to 39 million in 2025, that of England will increase from 66 million to 15 million, that of Australia from 23 million to 15 million. , that of Germany from 81 million to 28 million, while the population of Canada will grow from 36 million in 2017 to 26 million in 2025.
To make matters even stranger, a statement on Deagel's predictions page apparently claims that the population movements are due to suicide and assures us that the organization is not "a merchant of death or satanic worship":
“Historically, a shift in the economic paradigm has resulted in a death toll that is seldom highlighted by mainstream historians. When the transition from rural areas to large cities occurred in Europe, many people unable to accept the new paradigm committed suicide. They committed suicide by a psychological factor. This is not common but it is true. A new crisis combines old, well-known models with new ones. We are not a dealer in death or in satanic worship or in weapons as there are rumors floating around the Internet about this. "
“Take into account that the forecast is nothing more than a model, whether it is wrong or correct. It is not the word of God or some magical device that predicts the future. "- Deagel.com
Most of the economic and demographic data used to make the forecasts are widely available from institutions such as the CIA, IMF, UN, US government, etc.
There is a tiny fraction of the data coming from a variety of shadow sources such as internet gurus, unsigned reports and others. But all of these sources come from the Internet and are in the public domain for at least a minority. For example, several years ago, Dagong, the Chinese rating agency, published a report analyzing the physical economy of states by comparing it to that of China, Germany and Japan. The conclusion was that the US GDP was between $ 5,000 and $ 10,000 billion instead of $ 15 trillion, as the USG officially stated. We assume that official data, especially economic data, published by governments are false or distorted to some extent. Historically, it is well known that the former Soviet Union drew up false statistics years before its collapse. The West and other countries are now inventing their numbers to hide their real situation. We are sure that many people can find government statistics in their own country which, through their own personal experience, are hard to believe or are so optimistic that they may belong to another country.
Despite the "quantity" of digital data, there is a "quality" model that does not translate directly into digital data. The 2014 strain of Ebola has a death rate of 50-60%, but try to imagine what would happen if there was an Ebola pandemic with hundreds of thousands or millions of people infected with it. virus. So far, the few cases of people infected with the Ebola virus have “benefited” from intensive health care with antiviral and respiratory assistance, but mostly with abundant human support from doctors and nurses. In a pandemic scenario, this type of health care will not be available for the overwhelming number of infected, leading to a dramatic increase in the death rate due to the lack of appropriate health care. The “quality” factor is that the death rate could increase by 80-90% in a pandemic scenario from the reported rate of 50-60%. The number itself does not matter what is relevant is the fact that the scenario may evolve beyond the initial conditions of a 50% balance sheet to over 90%. By the way, no pandemic or nuclear war is included in the forecast.
The key to understanding the process America will enter the next decade is migration. In the past, especially in the 20th century, the key factor that enabled the United States to achieve its status as a colossus was immigration with the benefits of population expansion favoring credit expansion and brain drain. the rest of the world for the benefit of States. The collapse of the Western financial system will wipe out the standard of living of its people while putting an end to ponzi schemes such as the stock market and pension funds. The population will be hit so hard by a full array of bubbles and ponzi schemes that the migration engine will start to work in reverse acceleration due to ripple effects, leading to the demise of states. This situation invisible to states will cascade with unprecedented and devastating effects on the economy. The offshoring of jobs will surely end with many American companies relocating abroad thus becoming foreign companies !!!!
We see a significant portion of the American population migrating to Latin America and Asia while migration to Europe - suffering from a similar illness - will not be relevant. Nonetheless, the death toll will be horrendous. Take into account that the population of the Soviet Union was poorer than Americans today or even then. The ex-Soviets suffered during the next struggle in the 1990s with a significant death toll and loss of national pride. Could we say "twice the pride, twice the fall"? Nope. America's standard of living is one of the highest, well over double that of the Soviets while adding a service economy that will accompany the financial system. When retirees see their retirement disappearing in front of their eyes and there are no service jobs, you can imagine what will happen next. At least young people can migrate. Never in human history have there been so many elders in the population. Over the past centuries, people have been fortunate enough to reach their 30s and 40s. America's downfall is expected to be much worse than that of the Soviet Union. A confluence of crisis with a devastating result.
The demographic crisis in the former Soviet Union countries extended for more than two decades, if we admit that it ended at the beginning of this decade (2010s). The demographic crisis will hit the world in the near future and is expected to last between three and eight decades more or less depending on technological advances and environmental issues. The consequence is more likely a frozen picture with the number of populations remaining the same for a very, very long period of time. Countries expect population figures to reflect births / deaths as well as migratory movements. Many countries will increase their gross populations as a result of immigration while their indigenous populations may decrease.
Over the past two thousand years we have seen Western civilization built around the Mediterranean Sea move to Northern Europe, then in the mid-twentieth century move to an Atlantic axis and finally focus on the United States. United for the past 30 years. The next step will see civilization centered on Asia with Russia and China at the top. Historically, a shift in the economic paradigm has resulted in a death toll that is seldom highlighted by mainstream historians. When the transition from rural areas to large cities occurred in Europe, many people unable to accept the new paradigm committed suicide. They committed suicide by a psychological factor. This is not common but it is true. A new crisis combines old, well-known models with new ones.
Sorry to disappoint many of you with our forecast. They have worsened more and more each year since the start of the pre-crisis in 2007. It is already said that this site is non-profit, built on free time and we provide our information and services AS IS without others. explanations and / or guarantees.
We are not tied to any government in any way. We are not a dealer in death or in satanic worship or in weapons as there are rumors floating around the Internet about this. Be aware that the forecast is nothing more than a model, whether it is wrong or correct. It is not the word of God or some magical device that predicts the future.
There are 179 countries listed with a forecast. Deagel Forecast For USA – Population Drops 70% Deagel.com is a global military intelligence site. They have had an online presence since 2003. They report on high-level military equipment assets and keep track of military expenditures by country “with nearly impeccable numbers”. Population In Millions, Real Gross Domestic Products In USD Billions, Defense Budget In USD Billions, Power Purchase Parity In USD
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Disclaimer*
In 2014 Deagel.com published a disclaimer about the forecast. Stating in six years the scenario had changed dramatically. This new disclaimer is meant to single out the situation from 2020 onwards. Talking about the United States and the European Union as separated entities no longer makes sense. Both are the Western block, keep printing money and will share the same fate.
After COVID we can draw two major conclusions:
- The Western world success model has been built over societies with no resilience that can barely withstand any hardship, even a low intensity one. It was assumed but we got the full confirmation beyond any doubt.
- The COVID crisis will be used to extend the life of this dying economic system through the so called Great Reset.
The Great Reset; like the climate change, extinction rebellion, planetary crisis, green revolution, shale oil (…) hoaxes promoted by the system; is another attempt to slow down dramatically the consumption of natural resources and therefore extend the lifetime of the current system. It can be effective for awhile but finally won’t address the bottom-line problem and will only delay the inevitable. The core ruling elites hope to stay in power which is in effect the only thing that really worries them.
The collapse of the Western financial system - and ultimately the Western civilization - has been the major driver in the forecast along with a confluence of crisis with a devastating outcome. As COVID has proven Western societies embracing multiculturalism and extreme liberalism are unable to deal with any real hardship. The Spanish flu one century ago represented the death of 40-50 million people. Today the world’s population is four times greater with air travel in full swing which is by definition a super spreader. The death casualties in today’s World would represent 160 to 200 million in relative terms but more likely 300-400 million taking into consideration the air travel factor that did not exist one century ago. So far, COVID death toll is roughly 1 million people. It is quite likely that the economic crisis due to the lockdowns will cause more deaths than the virus worldwide.
The Soviet system was less able to deliver goodies to the people than the Western one. Nevertheless Soviet society was more compact and resilient under an authoritarian regime. That in mind, the collapse of the Soviet system wiped out 10 percent of the population. The stark reality of diverse and multicultural Western societies is that a collapse will have a toll of 50 to 80 percent depending on several factors but in general terms the most diverse, multicultural, indebted and wealthy (highest standard of living) will suffer the highest toll. The only glue that keeps united such aberrant collage from falling apart is overconsumption with heavy doses of bottomless degeneracy disguised as virtue. Nevertheless the widespread censorship, hate laws and contradictory signals mean that even that glue is not working any more. Not everybody has to die migration can also play a positive role in this.
The formerly known as second and third world nations are an unknown at this point. Their fate will depend upon the decisions they take in the future. Western powers are not going to take over them as they did in the past because these countries won’t be able to control their own cities far less likely countries that are far away. If they remain tied to the former World Order they will go down along Western powers but won’t experience the brutal decline of the late because they are poorer and not diverse enough but rather quite homogenous used to deal with some sort of hardship but not precisely the one that is coming. If they switch to China they can get a chance to stabilize but will depend upon the management of their resources.
We expected this situation to unfold and actually is unfolding right now with the November election triggering a major bomb if Trump is re-elected. If Biden is elected there will very bad consequences as well. There is a lot of bad blood in the Western societies and the protests, demonstrations, rioting and looting are only the first symptoms of what is coming. However a new trend is taking place overshadowing this one.
The situation between the three great powers has changed dramatically. The only relevant achievement of the Western powers during the past decade has been the formation of a strategic alliance, both military and economic, between Russia and China. Right now the potential partnership between Russia and the European Union (EU) is dead with Russia turning definitively towards China. That was from the beginning the most likely outcome. Airbus never tried to establish a real partnership but rather a strategy to fade away the Russian aerospace industry. Actually Russia and China have formed a new alliance to build a long haul airliner. Western Europe (not to mention the United States) was never interested in the development of Russia or forming anything other than a master slave relationship with Russia providing raw materials and toeing the line of the West. It was clear then and today is a fact.
Russia has been preparing for a major war since 2008 and China has been increasing her military capabilities for the last 20 years. Today China is not a second tier power compared with the United States. Both in military and economic terms China is at the same level and in some specific areas are far ahead. In the domain of high-tech 5G has been a success in the commercial realm but the Type 055 destroyer is also another breakthrough with the US gaining a similar capability (DDG 51 Flight IIII) by mid of this decade (more likely by 2030). Nanchang, the lead ship of the Type 055 class, was commissioned amid the pandemic and lockdown in China.
Six years ago the likelihood of a major war was tiny. Since then it has grown steadily and dramatically and today is by far the most likely major event in the 2020s. The ultimate conflict can come from two ways. A conventional conflict involving at least two major powers that escalates into an open nuclear war. A second scenario is possible in the 2025-2030 timeframe. A Russian sneak first strike against the United States and its allies with the new S-500, strategic missile defenses, Yasen-M submarines, INF Zircon and Kalibr missiles and some new space asset playing the key role. The sneak first strike would involve all Russian missile strategic forces branches (bombers and ground-based missiles) at the different stages of such attack that would be strategic translation of what was seen in Syria in November 2015. There was no report that the Russian had such a capability of launching a high precision, multiple, combined arms attack at targets 2,000+ kilometers away. Western intelligence had no clue. The irony is that since the end of the Cold War the United States has been maneuvering through NATO to achieve a position to execute a first strike over Russia and now it seems that the first strike may occur but the country finished would be the United States.
Another particularity of the Western system is that its individuals have been brainwashed to the point that the majority accept their moral high ground and technological edge as a given. This has given the rise of the supremacy of the emotional arguments over the rational ones which are ignored or deprecated. That mindset can play a key role in the upcoming catastrophic events. At least in the Soviet system the silent majority of the people were aware of the fallacies they were fed up. We can see the United States claims about G5 being stolen from them by China or hypersonic technology being stolen by Russia as the evidence that the Western elites are also infected by that hubris. Over the next decade it will become obvious that the West is falling behind the Russia-China block and the malaise might grow into desperation. Going to war might seem a quick and easy solution to restore the lost hegemony to finally find them into a France 1940 moment. Back then France did not have nuclear weapons to turn a defeat into a victory. The West might try that swap because the unpleasant prospect of not being Mars and Venus but rather a bully and his dirty bitch running away in fear while the rest of the world is laughing at them.
If there is not a dramatic change of course the world is going to witness the first nuclear war. The Western block collapse may come before, during or after the war. It does not matter. A nuclear war is a game with billions of casualties and the collapse plays in the hundreds of millions.
UK, US, and Germany look to be “epicenters of slaughter”
Researcher Craig Paardekooper released this report on predictions of global population reduction from military analysis website Deagel.com.
Paardekooper’s article links mass slaughter to vaccines in countries inhabited mainly by White people of European descent.
Quote:
Deagel.com provided the 2025 forecast for population of each country. I obtained their forecast data before it was taken down in April of this year. However, the data had been safely archived and was still available for analysis.
I calculated the % population reductions for each country based on the difference between the current population and the 2025 forecast, and rank sorted each country in order of largest population reduction.
My hypothesis was that the cull would have an epicentre, centred in the countries/ powers who were running the pandemic – namely the G7.
I also hypothesised that those countries making the vaccines would right at the heart of the slaughter.
Observations
1. The G7 countries are clustered near the top of the list – their % population reductions are:
a. UK - 78.5%
b. USA - 70.2%
c. Germany - 65%
d. France - 41.8%
e. Italy - 30.6%
f. Canada - 29.7%
g. Japan - 17.6%
2. Three countries dominate the top positions:
a. UK
b. USA
c. Germany
These are the very 3 countries involved in the production of the vaccines: Astrazeneca, Moderna and Pfizer vaccines
If Deagel is an accurate forecast, then:
1. It is extremely dangerous to stay in UK, USA or Germany – the epicentres of this slaughter – the places where they make the vaccines (4 in 5 will die here).
2. G7 countries in general are a bad idea (1 in 3 will die at best).
3. European countries in general are unsafe.
4. The Eastern European countries appear to be the safer - Romania, Belize, Chechia, Lithuania, Finland, Hungry, Latvia.
5. There [is] quite a number of countries where there is no culling.
In Summary
It is advised that people temporarily distance themselves from UK, USA and Germany. These governments are planning the utter destruction of their own populations. And most are complying — it is almost like a suicide cult.
China comes in far down the list with just a 2.3% predicted reduction in population, from 1.390 billion to 1.358 billion people.
Deagel, a true intelligence organization for the US government, predicts a massive 50-80% global depopulation by 2025.
Few people are familiar with this website and even more say the organization does not legitimately exist. Despite the overwhelming removal of its significance, WikiLeaks documents revealed that it was legitimately used as a reference material in a Stratfor report on the technological capabilities of the North People’s Republic of Korea.
According to its own website, Deagel provides news and information on international military aviation and advanced technologies. The website contains articles from 2003, but little is known about the real owners. Many online researchers have mistakenly confused this site with “deagle.com” which is owned by Edwin A. Deagle, Jr., Assistant to the Secretary of Defense and Assistant Secretary of Defense.
Deagel’s reports, particularly the aforementioned research on North Korea, were also provided to the president during presidential briefings. Deagel thus provides information which is then used by global intelligence communities and governments. Here is a partial list of known Deagel partners and customers, according to their own websites: National Security Agency, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the Russian Defense Procurement Agency, Stratfor, the World Bank and the United Nations.
The advantage of these forecasts is that the Deagel site has no conflict of interest in these forecasts. They are literally mercenaries. The site analyzes which budgets will be allocated to which markets to purchase military aircraft. That’s all that really matters to them. These forecasts are based on the reconciliation of various publicly available reports from institutions such as the CIA, the IMF and the UN. They also include a small amount of data from a variety of “dark sources” such as web gurus. But all of these sources are on the internet. The list is constantly evolving. Forecasts of population growth or decline, military spending, and purchasing power parity across countries around the world have fluctuated somewhat, but since 2015 one prediction has not changed: China will be the largest economy on the planet in 2025.
Massive global depopulation of 50 to 80% according to Deagel.
This highly regarded intelligence organization has bleak prospects for the United States in the years to come, including an 81% decline in its population, from 327 million in 2017 to 100 million in 2025. In fact, it predicted a similar cataclysmic fate for the UK, Australia, Germany, Japan, Denmark, and other US allies. For example, according to Deagel, the population of France will increase from 67 million inhabitants in 2017 to 39 million in 2025, that of England will increase from 66 million to 15 million, that of Australia from 23 million to 15 million. , that of Germany from 81 million to 28 million, while the population of Canada will grow from 36 million in 2017 to 26 million in 2025.
To make matters even stranger, a statement on Deagel’s predictions page apparently claims that the population movements are due to suicide and assures us that the organization is not “a merchant of death or satanic worship”:
“Historically, a shift in the economic paradigm has resulted in a death toll that is seldom highlighted by mainstream historians. When the transition from rural areas to large cities occurred in Europe, many people unable to accept the new paradigm committed suicide. They committed suicide by a psychological factor. This is not common but it is true. A new crisis combines old, well-known models with new ones. We are not a dealer in death or in satanic worship or in weapons as there are rumors floating around the Internet about this. “
“Take into account that the forecast is nothing more than a model, whether it is wrong or correct. It is not the word of God or some magical device that predicts the future. “- Deagel.com
Most of the economic and demographic data used to make the forecasts are widely available from institutions such as the CIA, IMF, UN, US government, etc.
There is a tiny fraction of the data coming from a variety of shadow sources such as internet gurus, unsigned reports and others. But all of these sources come from the Internet and are in the public domain for at least a minority. For example, several years ago, Dagong, the Chinese rating agency, published a report analyzing the physical economy of states by comparing it to that of China, Germany and Japan. The conclusion was that the US GDP was between $ 5,000 and $ 10,000 billion instead of $ 15 trillion, as the USG officially stated. We assume that official data, especially economic data, published by governments are false or distorted to some extent. Historically, it is well known that the former Soviet Union drew up false statistics years before its collapse. The West and other countries are now inventing their numbers to hide their real situation. We are sure that many people can find government statistics in their own country which, through their own personal experience, are hard to believe or are so optimistic that they may belong to another country.
Despite the “quantity” of digital data, there is a “quality” model that does not translate directly into digital data. The 2014 strain of Ebola has a death rate of 50-60%, but try to imagine what would happen if there was an Ebola pandemic with hundreds of thousands or millions of people infected with it. virus. So far, the few cases of people infected with the Ebola virus have “benefited” from intensive health care with antiviral and respiratory assistance, but mostly with abundant human support from doctors and nurses. In a pandemic scenario, this type of health care will not be available for the overwhelming number of infected, leading to a dramatic increase in the death rate due to the lack of appropriate health care. The “quality” factor is that the death rate could increase by 80-90% in a pandemic scenario from the reported rate of 50-60%. The number itself does not matter what is relevant is the fact that the scenario may evolve beyond the initial conditions of a 50% balance sheet to over 90%. By the way, no pandemic or nuclear war is included in the forecast.
The key to understanding the process America will enter the next decade is migration. In the past, especially in the 20th century, the key factor that enabled the United States to achieve its status as a colossus was immigration with the benefits of population expansion favoring credit expansion and brain drain. the rest of the world for the benefit of States. The collapse of the Western financial system will wipe out the standard of living of its people while putting an end to ponzi schemes such as the stock market and pension funds. The population will be hit so hard by a full array of bubbles and ponzi schemes that the migration engine will start to work in reverse acceleration due to ripple effects, leading to the demise of states. This situation invisible to states will cascade with unprecedented and devastating effects on the economy. The offshoring of jobs will surely end with many American companies relocating abroad thus becoming foreign companies !!!!
We see a significant portion of the American population migrating to Latin America and Asia while migration to Europe – suffering from a similar illness – will not be relevant. Nonetheless, the death toll will be horrendous. Take into account that the population of the Soviet Union was poorer than Americans today or even then. The ex-Soviets suffered during the next struggle in the 1990s with a significant death toll and loss of national pride. Could we say “twice the pride, twice the fall”? Nope. America’s standard of living is one of the highest, well over double that of the Soviets while adding a service economy that will accompany the financial system. When retirees see their retirement disappearing in front of their eyes and there are no service jobs, you can imagine what will happen next. At least young people can migrate. Never in human history have there been so many elders in the population. Over the past centuries, people have been fortunate enough to reach their 30s and 40s. America’s downfall is expected to be much worse than that of the Soviet Union. A confluence of crisis with a devastating result.
The demographic crisis in the former Soviet Union countries extended for more than two decades, if we admit that it ended at the beginning of this decade (2010s). The demographic crisis will hit the world in the near future and is expected to last between three and eight decades more or less depending on technological advances and environmental issues. The consequence is more likely a frozen picture with the number of populations remaining the same for a very, very long period of time. Countries expect population figures to reflect births / deaths as well as migratory movements. Many countries will increase their gross populations as a result of immigration while their indigenous populations may decrease.
Over the past two thousand years we have seen Western civilization built around the Mediterranean Sea move to Northern Europe, then in the mid-twentieth century move to an Atlantic axis and finally focus on the United States. United for the past 30 years. The next step will see civilization centered on Asia with Russia and China at the top. Historically, a shift in the economic paradigm has resulted in a death toll that is seldom highlighted by mainstream historians. When the transition from rural areas to large cities occurred in Europe, many people unable to accept the new paradigm committed suicide. They committed suicide by a psychological factor. This is not common but it is true. A new crisis combines old, well-known models with new ones.
Sorry to disappoint many of you with our forecast. They have worsened more and more each year since the start of the pre-crisis in 2007.
We are not tied to any government in any way. We are not a dealer in death or in satanic worship or in weapons as there are rumors floating around the Internet about this. Be aware that the forecast is nothing more than a model, whether it is wrong or correct.
Also:
Population projections 2004-2050
EU25 population rises until 2025, then falls
Working age population expected to decrease by 52 million by 2050
Over the next two decades the t otal population of the EU25 is expected to increase by more than 13 million inhabitants, from 456.8 million on 1 January 2004 to 470.1 million on 1 January 2025 . Population growth in the EU25 until 2025 will be mainly due to net migration, since total deaths in the EU25 will outnumber total births from 2010. The effect of net migration will no longer outweigh the natural decrease after 2025, when the population will start to decline gradually. The population will reach 449.8 million on 1 January 2050 , that is a decrease of more than 20 million inhabitants co mpared to 2025 . Over the whole projection period the EU25 population will decrease by 1.5%, resulting from a 0.4% increase for the EU15 and a 11.7% decrease for the ten new Member States.
The share of the population of working age (between 15 and 64 ) in th e total population is expected to decrease strongly in the EU25, from 67.2% in 2004 to 56.7% in 2050 , that is a fall of 5 2 million inhabitants of working age .
The share of the population aged betwe en 0 and 14 will also be reduced , from 16.4% in 2004 to 13. 4% in 2050, while the proportion of elderly people (aged 65 and more) is expected to almost double over th is period, from 16.4% in 2004 to 29.9% in 2050.
This information on population projections 1 in the EU25, Bulgaria and Romania, issued by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities , has been derived from the analysis and extrapolation of demographic trends. Given the length of the projection period, results should be considered with caution.
Largest declines in most of the new Member States
In 2004 t he population is estimated to have decreased in seven Member States ( the Czech Republic , Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia). B y 202 5 the population will decrease in another six ; Italy (from 2013) , Germany and Slovenia (both 2014) , Portugal (2018), Greece (2020) and Spain ( 2022). By 2050, twenty Member States are expected to registe r a decline in their population; the previous thirteen plus Finland (from 2028), Austria (2029), Denmark (2032), the Netherlands (2036), Belgium (2037), the United Kingdom (2040) and France (2042). The population will still be increasing in Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta and Sweden.
Between 2004 and 2050 , the largest declines are expected to be observed in most of the new Member States : Latvia ( -19.2%), Estonia (-16.6%), Lithuania (-16.4%), the Czech Republic (-12.9%), Hungary and Slovakia (both -11.9%), and Poland ( -11.8%). Over the whole period, the strongest increases will be recorded in Luxembourg (+42.3%), Ireland (+36.0%), Cyprus (+33.5%) and Malta (+27.1%).
In absolute terms the larg est population dec reases are expected in Germany (-7.9 million), followed by Italy (-5.2 million) and Poland ( -4.5 million) , while the highest rises are expected in France (+ 5.8 million) , the United Kingdom (+4.7 million) and Ireland (+1.5 million).
Number of adults and young people down by 67 million by 2050
The proportion of the population in working age (between 15 and 64) is expected to decline sharply in the long run.
In the EU25 it will pass from 67.2% in 2004 to 56.7% in 2050, i.e. in absolute terms from 306.8 million in 2004 to 254.9 million in 2050. In 2050 the lowest shares o f the population of working age will be observed in Spain (52.9%), Italy ( 53.5%), Portugal (55.0%) and Greece (55.2%) and t he highest in Luxembourg (61.3%), Malta (60.8%) and the Netherlands (60.7%).
The share of the EU25 population aged between 0 and 14 will decrease from 16.4% in 2004 to 13.4% in 2050. The largest decreases will be recorded in Cyprus (from 20.0% to 13.3%) an d Ireland (from 20.9% to 16.0%). In 2050 the proportion of young people will range between 11.2% in Italy and 16.6% in Luxembourg.
More than 10% of the population aged 80 or over in 2050
On the other hand, the proportion of elderly people (aged 65 and more) is expected to rise substantially throughout the whole projection period. In the EU25 it will increase from 16.4% in 2004 to 29.9% in 2050, or from 75.3 million in 2004 to 134.5 million in 2050. The largest shares of elderly people in 2050 are expected in Spain (35.6%), Italy (35.3%), and Greece (32.5%), and the lowest in Luxembourg (22.1%), the Netherlands (23.5 %) and Denmark (24.1%).
The proportion of very o ld people (aged 80 and more) is expected to almost triple in the EU25, from 4.0% in 2004 to 11.4% in 2050, with the highest proportions expected in Italy (14.1%), Germany (13.6%) and Spain (12.8%).
As a consequence, the elderly dependency ratio 2 in the EU25 will rise from 24.5% in 2004 to 52.8% in 2050, while the young dependency ratio 3 would remain more or less constant throughout the projection period, passing from 24.4% in 2004 to 23.7% in 2050. The total dependency ratio 4 in the EU25 would increase from 48.9% in 2004 to 76.5% in 2050. This means that whereas in 2004 there was one inactive person ( young or elderly) for every two persons of working age, in 2050 there would be three inactive persons for every four of working age.
1. The Eurostat set of population projections is just one among several scenarios of population evolution based on assumptions of fertility, mortality and migration. The current trend scenario does not take into account any future measures that could influence demographic trends and comprises four variants: the ‘baseline’ variant presented in this News Release, as well as 'high population', 'low population' and 'zero -migration' variants, all available on the Eurostat website . It should be noted that the assumptions adopted by Eurostat may differ from those adopted by National Statistical Institutes ( for example, assumptions about migration levels in Italy and Slovenia ). Therefore, the results published by Eurostat can be different from those published by Member States.
2. Population aged 65 and more as a percentage of population aged between 15 and 64.
3. Population aged between 0 and 14 as a percentage of population aged between 15 and 64.
4. Sum of young and elderly dependency ratios.
5. Data for France refer to metropolitan France.
Issued by:
Eurostat Press Office:
Philippe BAUTIER
BECH Building
L-2920 Luxembourg
Tel: +352-4301-33 444
Fax: +352-4301-35 349
eurostat-pressoffice@cec.eu.int
Eurostat news releases on the Web:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat/
For further information:
Giampaolo LANZIERI
Fabio SARTORI
Konstantinos GIANNAKOURIS
Tel: +352-4301-35 336
Fax: +352-4301-36 049
giampaolo.lanzieri@cec.eu.int
fabio.sartori@cec.eu.int
konstantinos.giannakouris@cec.eu.int
Total population
Population at 1 January
(1000 inhabitants)
Percentage increase with
respect to 1.1.2004
2004 2015 2025 2050 2015 2025 2050
EU25 456 815 467 307 470 057 449 831 2.3 2.9 -1.5
EU15 382 674 394 727 398 780 384 356 3.1 4.2 0.4
New Member States 74 141 72 580 71 278 65 475 -2.1 -3.9 -11.7
Belgium 10 396 10 674 10 898 10 906 2.7 4.8 4.9
Czech Republic 10 212 10 012 9 812 8 894 -2.0 -3.9 -12.9
Denmark 5 398 5 498 5 557 5 430 1.9 2.9 0.6
Germany 82 532 82 864 82 108 74 642 0.4 -0.5 -9.6
Estonia 1 351 1 279 1 224 1 126 -5.3 -9.4 -16.6
Greece 11 041 11 390 11 394 10 632 3.2 3.2 -3.7
Spain 42 345 45 264 45 556 42 834 6.9 7.6 1.2
France5 59 901 62 616 64 392 65 704 4.5 7.5 9.7
Ireland 4 028 4 555 4 922 5 478 13.1 22.2 36.0
Italy 57 888 58 630 57 751 52 709 1.3 -0.2 -8.9
Cyprus 730 828 897 975 13.3 22.8 33.5
Latvia 2 319 2 174 2 068 1 873 -6.3 -10.8 -19.2
Lithuania 3 446 3 258 3 134 2 881 -5.5 -9.1 -16.4
Luxembourg 452 499 544 643 10.4 20.5 42.3
Hungary 10 117 9 834 9 588 8 915 -2.8 -5.2 -11.9
Malta 400 439 468 508 9.8 17.0 27.1
Netherlands 16 258 16 957 17 429 17 406 4.3 7.2 7.1
Austria 8 114 8 358 8 501 8 216 3.0 4.8 1.3
Poland 38 191 37 429 36 836 33 665 -2.0 -3.5 -11.8
Portugal 10 475 10 762 10 730 10 009 2.7 2.4 -4.4
Slovenia 1 996 2 019 2 014 1 901 1.1 0.9 -4.8
Slovakia 5 380 5 309 5 237 4 738 -1.3 -2.7 -11.9
Finland 5 220 5 354 5 439 5 217 2.6 4.2 -0.1
Sweden 8 976 9 373 9 769 10 202 4.4 8.8 13.7
United Kingdom 59 652 61 934 63 792 64 330 3.8 6.9 7.8
Bulgaria 7 801 7 130 6 465 5 094 -8.6 -17.1 -34.7
Romania 21 711 20 917 19 746 17 125 -3.7 -9.1 -21.1
Population structure – Main age groups
Percentage aged 0-14 Percentage aged 15-64 Percentage aged 65+
2004 2025 2050 2004 2025 2050 2004 2025 2050
EU25 16.4 14.4 13.4 67.2 63.0 56.7 16.4 22.6 29.9
EU15 16.3 14.4 13.5 66.7 62.8 56.5 17.0 22.8 30.0
New Member States 16.7 14.4 13.2 69.7 64.5 57.7 13.6 21.1 29.1
Belgium 17.3 15.6 14.7 65.6 61.9 57.6 17.1 22.5 27.7
Czech Republic 15.2 13.5 12.6 70.8 64.1 56.5 14.0 22.4 30.9
Denmark 18.9 15.9 15.7 66.2 62.9 60.2 14.9 21.2 24.1
Germany 14.7 12.9 11.9 67.3 62.5 56.5 18.0 24.6 31.6
Estonia 16.0 16.2 14.8 67.9 63.9 59.6 16.1 19.9 25.6
Greece 14.5 13.3 12.3 67.7 63.9 55.2 17.8 22.8 32.5
Spain 14.5 12.8 11.5 68.6 65.2 52.9 16.9 22.0 35.6
France5 18.6 16.7 15.8 65.1 60.9 57.0 16.3 22.4 27.2
Ireland 20.9 18.2 16.0 68.0 65.3 57.8 11.1 16.5 26.2
Italy 14.2 12.1 11.2 66.6 62.9 53.5 19.2 25.0 35.3
Cyprus 20.0 15.6 13.3 68.1 65.2 60.5 11.9 19.2 26.2
Latvia 15.4 16.2 14.8 68.4 64.1 59.1 16.2 19.7 26.1
Lithuania 17.7 15.1 13.7 67.3 65.7 59.6 15.0 19.2 26.7
Luxembourg 18.8 17.1 16.6 67.1 64.9 61.3 14.1 18.0 22.1
Hungary 15.9 14.3 13.8 68.6 63.7 58.1 15.5 22.0 28.1
Malta 18.2 15.6 14.5 68.7 63.1 60.8 13.1 21.3 24.7
Netherlands 18.5 16.1 15.8 67.6 63.3 60.7 13.9 20.6 23.5
Austria 16.3 13.8 12.3 68.2 64.1 57.3 15.5 22.1 30.4
Poland 17.2 14.6 13.0 69.8 64.3 57.6 13.0 21.1 29.4
Portugal 15.7 14.2 13.1 67.4 63.7 55.0 16.9 22.1 31.9
Slovenia 14.6 13.4 12.8 70.4 63.8 56.0 15.0 22.8 31.2
Slovakia 17.6 14.0 12.8 70.9 67.1 57.9 11.5 18.9 29.3
Finland 17.6 16.0 15.3 66.8 59.4 57.8 15.6 24.6 26.9
Sweden 17.8 17.1 16.3 65.0 60.7 59.4 17.2 22.2 24.3
United Kingdom 18.3 16.1 14.7 65.7 63.0 58.7 16.0 20.9 26.6
Bulgaria 14.2 11.7 11.5 68.7 64.5 55.0 17.1 23.8 33.5
Romania 16.4 14.1 12.5 69.1 66.9 57.9 14.5 19.0 29.6
Indicators of population structure
Young dependency ratio3 (%) Elderly dependency ratio2 (%) Total dependency ratio4 (%)
2004 2025 2050 2004 2025 2050 2004 2025 2050
EU25 24.4 22.9 23.7 24.5 35.7 52.8 48.9 58.7 76.5
EU15 24.5 23.0 23.9 25.5 36.3 53.2 50.0 59.3 77.1
New Member States 24.0 22.4 22.8 19.6 32.7 50.4 43.5 55.1 73.2
Belgium 26.4 25.2 25.4 26.1 36.5 48.1 52.5 61.7 73.5
Czech Republic 21.5 21.1 22.2 19.7 35.0 54.8 41.2 56.1 77.1
Denmark 28.5 25.3 26.0 22.5 33.8 40.0 51.0 59.1 66.0
Germany 21.9 20.7 21.1 26.8 39.3 55.8 48.7 60.0 76.9
Estonia 23.6 25.3 24.8 23.8 31.3 43.1 47.4 56.6 67.9
Greece 21.4 20.9 22.3 26.4 35.5 58.8 47.8 56.4 81.1
Spain 21.2 19.7 21.7 24.6 33.6 67.5 45.8 53.3 89.2
France5 28.5 27.4 27.7 25.2 36.9 47.9 53.7 64.3 75.6
Ireland 30.7 27.9 27.7 16.4 25.2 45.3 47.1 53.0 73.0
Italy 21.3 19.3 21.0 28.9 39.7 66.0 50.2 59.0 86.9
Cyprus 29.4 24.0 22.0 17.5 29.3 43.2 46.9 53.3 65.2
Latvia 22.5 25.2 25.0 23.6 30.7 44.1 46.1 55.9 69.1
Lithuania 26.2 23.1 23.0 22.3 29.2 44.9 48.6 52.2 67.8
Luxembourg 28.0 26.4 27.1 21.0 27.7 36.1 49.0 54.1 63.3
Hungary 23.1 22.4 23.7 22.6 34.5 48.3 45.7 56.9 72.0
Malta 26.5 24.7 23.9 19.0 33.8 40.6 45.5 58.4 64.6
Netherlands 27.4 25.4 26.1 20.5 32.5 38.6 47.9 57.9 64.7
Austria 23.9 21.5 21.5 22.8 34.5 53.2 46.7 56.0 74.6
Poland 24.7 22.6 22.6 18.6 32.8 51.0 43.3 55.4 73.5
Portugal 23.3 22.3 23.8 24.9 34.7 58.1 48.3 57.0 81.9
Slovenia 20.8 21.1 22.9 21.4 35.8 55.6 42.1 56.9 78.5
Slovakia 24.8 20.9 22.2 16.3 28.1 50.6 41.0 49.0 72.9
Finland 26.4 27.0 26.4 23.3 41.4 46.7 49.7 68.3 73.1
Sweden 27.4 28.2 27.5 26.4 36.5 40.9 53.8 64.6 68.4
United Kingdom 27.8 25.5 25.0 24.3 33.2 45.3 52.1 58.7 70.3
Bulgaria 20.6 18.1 21.0 24.9 36.9 60.9 45.5 55.0 81.9
Romania 23.8 21.0 21.6 20.9 28.5 51.1 44.6 49.5 72.6
