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What Is Hyperinflation?
Hyperinflation is a term to describe rapid, excessive, and out-of-control general price increases in an economy. While inflation measures the pace of rising prices for goods and services, hyperinflation is rapidly rising inflation, typically measuring more than 50% per month.
Although hyperinflation is a rare event for developed economies, it has occurred many times throughout history in countries such as China, Germany, Russia, Hungary, and Georgia.
Key Takeaways
Hyperinflation refers to rapid and unrestrained price increases in an economy, typically at rates exceeding 50% each month over time.
Hyperinflation can occur in circumstances affecting the underlying production economy, in conjunction with a central bank printing excessive money.
Hyperinflation can cause a surge in prices for essential goods—such as food and fuel—as demand outpaces supply.
While hyperinflation scenarios are typically rare, they can spiral out of control once they begin.
Understanding Hyperinflation
Inflation is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to measure the dollar's purchasing power. The CPI is an index of the prices for about 94,000 commodities and services; around 8,000 rental housing unit quotes; and prices for airline fares, apparel, household goods, prescription drugs, used automobiles, and postage.
Generally speaking, the Federal Reserve strives to maintain what it calls a healthy inflation rate of around 2% over the long term.
A rate of inflation higher than 2% is considered high.
Hyperinflation is an extreme case of inflation, not just a high inflation rate.
Hyperinflation occurs when prices have risen by more than 50% per month. Daily increases might approach 200% or more when hyperinflation occurs.
For comparative purposes, the U.S. inflation rate measured by the CPI has averaged about 2% per year since 2012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
For instance, imagine you always buy the same items at the grocery store. If the economy were experiencing a rising inflation rate of 5% per day, your grocery bill might rise from $500 per week to $675 the next week, to $911 per week the following week, and so on.
Causes of Hyperinflation
Although several circumstances can trigger hyperinflation, here are the most common causes of hyperinflation.
Excessive Money Supply
Central banks generally control the circulating supply of money. In circumstances that historically warrant an increase in the money supply—like a recession or depression—central banks can increase the amount of money circulating. The intent behind this action is to encourage banks to lend and consumers and businesses to borrow and spend.
However, if the increase in money supply is not supported by economic growth—as measured by gross domestic product (GDP)—hyperinflation can result. If GDP—the measure of an economy's production—isn't growing, businesses raise prices to boost profits and stay afloat.
Because consumers have more money, they pay higher prices and feed inflation. If economic output continues to stagnate or shrink and inflation keeps rising, companies charge more, consumers pay more, and the central bank prints more money. A cycle of increasing inflation rates occurs, leading to hyperinflation.
Demand-Pull Inflation
Demand-pull inflation is a scenario in which aggregate demand becomes too high for aggregate supply. This increases prices rapidly because there are not enough goods and services available to meet the increase in overall demand from consumers and businesses.
Hyperinflation is the product of many circumstances and poor monetary decision-making coming together.
Effects of Hyperinflation
Hyperinflation can cause several adverse consequences. People may begin hoarding goods, such as food. In turn, there can be food supply shortages.
When prices rise excessively, money decreases in value because inflation causes it to have less purchasing power. Less purchasing power means consumers spend more to buy less. As a result, they have less money to pay bills and fewer dollars to use on essential items.
Also, people might not deposit their money in financial institutions, leading banks and lenders to go out of business. Tax revenues may also fall if consumers and businesses can't pay, resulting in governments failing to provide essential services.
How to Prepare for Hyperinflation
It's critical to remember that hyperinflation doesn't happen very often, especially in developed countries where a central bank focuses on reigning in and controlling inflationary periods. However, there are some actions you can take to reduce the effects normal or high inflation have on your portfolio.
A balanced and diversified portfolio can help you reduce losses through inflationary periods. Commodities and real estate can reduce the adverse effects of inflation because they tend to increase in value during these times. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) can hedge against rising inflation because the principal you have invested in a TIPS adjusts with inflation.
Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that practice inflation swaps can also be used to combat the effects of inflation on your portfolio.
Real-World Examples of Hyperinflation
Yugoslavia
One of the more devastating and prolonged episodes of hyperinflation occurred in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. On the verge of national dissolution, the country had already been experiencing inflation at rates that exceeded 76% annually.
In 1991, it was discovered that the leader of the then Serbian province, Slobodan Milosevic, had plundered the national treasury by having the Serbian central bank issue $1.4 billion of loans to his cronies.
The theft forced the government's central bank to print excessive amounts of money to take care of its financial obligations. As a result, hyperinflation quickly enveloped the economy, erasing what was left of the country’s wealth and forcing its people into bartering for goods. The inflation rate nearly doubled each day until it reached an unfathomable rate of 313,000,000% per month.
The government quickly took control of production and wages, which led to food shortages. As a result, incomes dropped by more than 50%, and production crawled to a stop. Eventually, the government replaced its currency with the German mark, which helped to stabilize the economy.
Hungary
Hungary experienced hyperinflation after World War II. At the peak of Hungary's inflation, prices were rising 207% per day.
Zimbabwe
In March 2007, Zimbabwe entered a period of hyperinflation that equaled a daily rate of inflation of 98% until early 2009.5 The country's hyperinflationary period began in 1999 after the country experienced several periods of drought and a following reduction in GDP.
As a result, the country was forced to borrow more than it produced, and the government began spending more. It increased taxes to pay bonuses to independence war veterans, became involved in a war in the Congo, and borrowed from the International Monetary Fund to improve development and living standards for citizens.
The government began printing money to pay for the expenses, causing an inflationary rise, and residents began to move to other countries to escape the economy. By 2010, nearly 1.3 million people had left, and the economy was in shambles.
What Will Happen If There Is Hyperinflation?
Hyperinflation doesn't occur without any indication. If economists see signs of hyperinflation—well before inflation reaches 50% in a month—the Federal Reserve will implement any monetary policy tools allowed to ensure it doesn't happen. In the past, Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker raised rates to more than 21% to combat a rate of more than 14%—leading to two recessions before inflation came under control.
Will the U.S. Go Into Hyperinflation?
It is doubtful that the U.S. will experience hyperinflation unless economic circumstances become very dire. The Federal Reserve and government have many tools at their disposal that can prevent hyperinflation from occurring.
What Was the Worst Hyperinflation in History?
Hungary experienced hyperinflation from August 1945 to Jul 1946, with a daily inflation rate of 207%.
The Bottom Line
Hyperinflation is a scenario in which a county's inflation rate rises 50% in one month. It is a concern if a country is in a situation where it cannot afford to meet its obligations or experiences circumstances that affect its ability to produce goods and services. Thus, hyperinflation is not something that occurs very often. Nevertheless, hyperinflation has happened 43 times in 28 countries since 1796.
Also:
The Return of Global Inflation
*This piece originally appeared in Project Syndicate on February 11, 2022
Today's inflationary surge is being felt not just by the advanced economies but also by the majority of emerging markets and developing economies. And though its causes vary across countries, the task of resolving the problem ultimately will fall to the world's major central banks.
Inflation has come back faster, spiked more markedly, and proved to be more stubborn and persistent than major central banks initially thought possible. After initially dominating headlines in the United States, the problem has become a centerpiece of policy discussions in many other advanced economies. In 15 of the 34 countries classified as AEs by the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook, 12-month inflation through December 2021 was running above 5%. Such a sudden, shared jump in high inflation (by modern standards) has not been seen in more than 20 years.
Nor is this inflationary surge limited to wealthy countries. Emerging markets and developing economies have been hit by a similar wave, with 78 out of 109 EMDEs also confronting annual inflation rates above 5%. That share of EMDEs (71%) is about twice as large as it was at the end of 2020. Inflation thus has become a global problem – or nearly so, with Asia so far immune.
The primary drivers of the inflation spike are not uniform across countries, particularly when comparing AEs and EMDEs. Diagnoses of “overheating,” prevalent in the US discourse, do not apply to many EMDEs, where fiscal and monetary stimulus in response to COVID-19 was limited, and where economic recovery in 2021 lagged well behind the AE rebound.
In the meantime, the resurgence of inflation will continue to reinforce inequality, both within and across countries.
Moreover, the pandemic-induced bust-and-recovery patterns differ markedly across country income groups, with recovery being defined as an economy’s return to its 2019 level of per capita income. About 41% of high-income AEs met that threshold at the end of 2021, compared to 28% of middle-income EMDEs and just 23% of low-income countries.
But the disparity between advanced and developing economies is even greater than this comparison suggests, because many EMDEs were already experiencing declines in per capita income before the pandemic, whereas AEs were mostly at new highs. While many EMDEs have marked down their estimates of potential output over the past two years, there is little to suggest that their inflationary pressures are driven primarily by overheating in the aftermath of significant policy stimulus.
One development that is common across advanced and developing economies is the increase in commodity prices alongside rising global demand. As of January 2022, oil prices were up 77% from their December 2020 level.
Another major issue affecting advanced and developing economies alike is global supply chains, which continue to be severely affected by the events of the past two years. Transport costs have skyrocketed. And unlike the oil-based supply shock of the 1970s, the COVID-19 supply shocks are more diverse and opaque, and therefore more uncertain, as the World Bank’s most recent Global Economic Prospects stresses.
In EMDEs, currency depreciation (owing to lower inflows of foreign capital and downgrades of sovereign credit ratings) has contributed to inflation among imported goods. And because inflation expectations in EMDEs are less anchored and more attune to currency movements than in AEs, the passthrough from exchange rates to prices tends to be faster and more pronounced.
Another important factor is food price inflation. During 2021, 12-month increases in food prices exceeded 5% in 79% (86 out of 109) of EMDEs. While AEs have not been immune to rising food prices, just 27% of them experienced price hikes exceeding 5%.
Worse, food price inflation also generally hits lower-income countries (and lower-income households everywhere) particularly hard, which makes it tantamount to a regressive tax. Food accounts for a much larger share of the average household consumption basket in EMDEs, which means that inflation in those economies is likely to prove persistent. Today’s higher energy prices will translate directly into higher food prices tomorrow (through higher costs for fertilizer, transport, and so forth).
Although most EMDEs no longer have fixed exchange rates – as they did during the inflation-prone 1970s – the scope for “truly independent” monetary policy in small open economies remains limited, floating exchange rates notwithstanding. The risk of them importing inflation from the global financial centers is not some relic of the past.
Indeed, the most salient feature of today’s inflation is its ubiquity. In the absence of global policy options to resolve supply-chain disruptions, the task of addressing inflation is left to the major central banks. While the US is poised to undergo a modest tightening (by historical standards) in 2022, this is unlikely to be sufficient to rein in price growth. As Kenneth Rogoff and I document in a 2013 paper, much of the inflation persistence of the 1970s stemmed from the US Federal Reserve’s tendency to do too little, too late (until Paul Volcker’s arrival).
To be sure, a more timely and robust policy response from major central banks would not be good news for EMDEs in the short run. Most would experience higher funding costs, and debt crises could become significantly more likely for some. Nonetheless, the longer-term costs of delaying action would be greater. Because the US and other advanced economies failed to tackle inflation quickly during the 1970s, they ultimately needed far more draconian policies, which led to America’s second-deepest post-war recession, along with a developing-country debt crisis.
As the old saying goes, “A stitch in time saves nine.” In the meantime, the resurgence of inflation will continue to reinforce inequality, both within and across countries.
