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Russian expert warns of possibility of large-scale war in Middle East
In an interview with the Voice of
Russia, Russian analyst Konstantin Sivkov said: “Deploying these
missiles in Turkey will be dangerous for Syrian military planes – this
is obvious. A lesser obvious thing is that Turkey is getting ready for a
war against Syria. If an attack on Syria from the territory of Turkey
does take place, this will most likely be an attack not of the Turkish
army, but of NATO’s forces.”
“The Middle East is
getting ready for a large-sale battle which will very likely affect the
Russian part of the Caucasus, and this, in its turn, will be reflected
on the entire Russia,” Mr. Sivkov added.
The
planned deployment by NATO countries of Patriot air defence systems on
Turkey’s Syria border will actually amount to the imposition of a no-fly
zone for Syrian aircraft in circumvention of the UN Security Council.
The opinion has been voiced by the leading research fellow of the Russian Institute for Oriental Studies, Vladimir Kudelev.
He feels that Patriot
systems may drastically influence the fighting between the government
troops and the opposition in the north of Syria, since the militants
will thus get a 200 kilometre - to 250 kilometre-wide “umbrella” all
along the Syrian-Turkish border.
The deployment of Patriots
would also undermine the role of the UN Security Council, which,
experts feel, would hardly authorize any proposal to impose a no-fly
zone for Syrian aircraft.
Plans
for the deployment of the Patriot Missile Air-Defence Systems on the
Turkish-Syrian border are defensive in character, NATO Secretary General
Anders Fogh Rasmussen said in a telephone talk with Russia’s Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov. Earlier Moscow voiced its concern over the
militarization of that region.
The above-mentioned
telephone talk was held on the initiative of the NATO Secretary General.
Moscow says that Rasmussen wanted to clarify the situation with the
deployment of the Patriot Missile Air-Defence Systems on the Turkish
territory. Ankara filed a relevant request to NATO on November 21st. The
information that appeared in the press more than once last month said
that Turkey was making preparations for appealing to Brussels. Possibly,
acting in this way Ankara wanted to indirectly put pressure on its NATO
allies. As you know, till recently NATO was strongly against getting
involved in a conflict between Turkey and Syria, a political analyst,
Stanislav Tarasov, says.
"They started asking NATO to
interfere in the conflict, using the Alliance’s Clause No.5 – the
defence of territories. Which means that they wanted to drag NATO into
the conflict and thus, to ensure its military presence in the region.
NATO said “No”. Then they resorted to Clause No. 4 – the provision of
help".
NATO said that it would consider Turkey’s
request without any delay. And Germany’s Foreign Ministry said that
Turkey’s request should be met without any delay. Media reports even
said that Berlin was ready not only to provide the Patriot Missile
Air-Defence Systems to Turkey but also to send 120 Bundeswehr soldiers
to the region. Turkey has not only moved its forces to its border with
Syria but has also approved a law enabling it to bring its troops into
the territory of its neighbor in case of a military threat. The reason
for such a large- scale militarization was firing missiles into the
Syrian territory, which official Damascus called an accident. Any
escalation of this conflict is inadmissible, Russia’s Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov said on November 23rd. Moscow is well aware of Turkey’s
concern as well as of NATO’s arguments but what is important in this
case is the potential, not intentions – that is why any militarization
on the Turkish-Syrian border may lead to an uncontrollable turn of
events, the Russian minister said.
"Any accumulation
of arms creates certain risks and urges all those who would like like to
resort to the exterior factor of force to finally use it. We believe
that this will not happen, and that all outside players will display
maximum responsibility in assessing the on-going developments in the
region'.
In the diplomatic language this means that
the events in Syria may start developing according to the Libyan
Scenario, experts say. As you know, the opposition is losing its
support, and Assad has a military superiority in Syria now, an Oriental
studies expert, Azhdar Kurtov, says.
"The
Syrian-Turkish border has a sophisticated mountain relief. Under such
conditions, combat aviation is a very effective method of fighting
against the rebels. Thus, if Turkey deploys the Patriot Missile
Air-Defence Systems on its territory, it will be able to block Syria
using its own aviation in the border regions on its own territory, which
may change the turn of military developments in the region. When the
overthrowing of the Gaddafi regime was under way, a no-fly zone was
established over Libya. Something like that may be created near the
Turkish-Syrian border".
Moscow’s fears may also be
caused by something that is not directly linked with the crisis in
Syria, a Turkish political analyst, Barysh Adybelli, says.
"Moscow
believes that in case the Patriot Misslile Air-Defence Systems are
deployed in Turkey, they can be used as one of the elements of the early
warning system - that is, as one of the elements of the European
missile defence system which the USA is ardently defending by now".
Official
Ankara reacted to Moscow’s statements on November 23rd. Turkey’s Prime
Minister Tayyip Erdogan called Moscow’s reaction to a possible
deployment of the Patriot Missile Air-Defence systems erroneous, adding
that Russia is trying to present Turkey’s domestic issue as its own
problem. Fears remain though.
NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen assured Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that plans of the alliance to deploy Patriot air defense missiles in Turkey are of purely defensive.
Mr. Rasmussen and Mr. Lavrov had a phone conversation on Friday initiated by NATO chief.
A
statement released by the Russian Foreign Ministry after the talks says
that Mr. Lavrov expressed his concerns over NATO`s plans to place
Patriot air missiles on the Turkish-Syrian border.
He
mentioned Russia’s initiative to help Ankara and Damascus be able to
discuss all differences directly amid the increasing military potential
in the region in order to avoid incidents.
Turkish
Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said that Russia’s reaction to the
deployment of the Patriot air defense systems on the border with Syria,
which Ankara requested from the NATO on Wednesday, was "erroneous".
Answering
the question about the Moscow's reaction to Turkey’s request to NATO,
the official representative of the Foreign Ministry of the Russian
Federation Alexander Lukashevich noted on Thursday that Russia
considered the militarization of the Syrian-Turkish border to be an
alarm signal. "I believe Russia’s statement to be very erroneous", - the
Turkish Prime Minister said in this regard to accompanying journalists
on his return from Pakistan from the summit of the "Islamic group of
eight".
Russia
has expressed its concern over the militarization of the Turkish-Syrian
border, the VoR correspondent Polina Chernitsa has cited the Foreign
Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich who commented on Turkey’s
request to deploy Patriot missiles on the Syrian border.
Moscow
would like Turkey to contribute to the beginning of the inter-Syria
dialogue rather than flex its military muscles, Russian Foreign Ministry
spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said on Thursday.
“The
militarization of the Syrian-Turkish border is a dismal signal,”
Lukashevich said, referring to Turkey’s recent request to deploy Patriot
anti-missile systems to protect its border with Syria.
He urged Turkey to interact more with the Syrian opposition so as to help start the inter-Syria dialogue as soon as possible.
Turkey already hosted the complex twice. in 1991 and 2003 during the two Iraqi campaigns but never used it.
Northwestern University engineer Yonggang Huang said the patch was "as soft as the human skin."
